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Showing posts from October, 2010

30th October - Today's News: Scots Think Putting Clocks Back Means Darker Mornings?

I'm currently running polls on the 3 main UK weather forums (Ukweatherworld, TWO and Net-Wx) asking whether people find dark mornings depressing. Over 100 respondents so far although the results aren't quite what I had expected. However, next week I'll post the results here. My point is that surveys on whether people would like to shift to Alpha time and have more daylight in the evenings are biased in that they do not point out the downside to this - darker mornings. And I personally find darker mornings in winter more depressing than it getting dark at 10.00pm in summer. Unfortunately there is no co-ordinated campaign against the proposal to shift to Alpha time and the public are being deliberate misled over the percieved benefits. Maybe I should also pop over to Mumsnet to ask there how easy parents find it to get their children to go to bed when it's still daylight outside - and how they therefore feel about an extra hour of daylight in the evening?

However I…

29th October - Today's News: Putting Clocks Forward Damages Our Health!

Putting clocks back damages our health, says expert - to which there is a simple answer: stop putting the bloody things forward in Spring! There's nothing more depressing than dark, dreary morning and having to get up and travel to work in the dark. Any attempt to move Britain to the the alpha time zone would seriously harm our mental wellbeing not to say totally fail to bring any benefits whatsoever (except to a handful of arrogant tossers in the SE England who want to be able to play tennis at 11.00pm on a summer's evening - when all normal folk have gone to bed, albeit struggling to sleep in the continuing daylight ......)

Someone's been looking at the MetO website and has decided that Met Office data suggests mild winter - however, my own interpretation is that there is no clear signal with regards temperature. Though I agree the data suggests a drier than average winter. Anyway, the story has prompted a MetO comment.

Manitoba, Saskatchewan clean up after weather b…

27th October - Today's News: Massive Storm Crosses USA

26th October - Today's News: Texas Twister Caught on Tape

Dramatic footage from the US on Sunday as Texas twister caught on tape - plenty of damage from that but no fatalities. Not so in northern Argentina though where there last week there were 6 dead and 110 injured in tornado strike.

There have also been reports of tornadoes spawned by an active cold front in the south of England on Saturday, though none have yet been confirmed. In the most serious case, Adrian Hunneyball lucky to be alive after 'mini tornado' fells tree near Ringwood. There was also a report of a tornado near Hastings and a conformed sighting of a funnel cloud out to sea off Dover. Late autumn and early winter is usually the main 'season' for tornadoes in Britain.

Earthquake sparks small tsunami in Indonesia with the latest reports that the death toll rises after Indonesian tsunami

Australia to have wetter than normal weather for three months on La Nina - which I've been saying for some time now.

China's Three Gorges Dam reaches maximum capacity

W…

25th October - Today's News

Down to -1.4c this morning for my third frost of the month and probably cold enough to argue that any forthcoming warm spell is an 'Indian Summer' - not that any such looks likely with a fairly unsettled spell of weather for the foreseeable future. Hopefully that means more wins on the Walker's Rainfall Challenge - now up to £200 in winnings but should really have been more. It's not been raining in the right places!

Anyway, today just a quick catch-up on the main weekend stories:

Hurricane Richard batters Belize

Missing bus tourists sought in typhoon-hit Taiwan

Cyclone Giri pummels west Burma

UN to send thousands of tents amid major floods in Benin

Severe drought afflicts Brazilian Amazon - looks like the worst since at least 1963.

Another winter of extremes in store for US as La Nina strengthens

Arctic region continues to warm at unprecedented rate - unprecented that is in modern time.

Antarctic snowfall linked to West Australian drought

What will space tourism mean for cli…

20th October: Today's News: Typhoon Megi Leaves 200,000 Homeless; Heads Towards China

Typhoon Megi leaves 200,000 homeless in Philippines as rescuers try to reach Philippines storm survivors and Southern China braces for super typhoon whilst snail-paced Typhoon Megi keeps rain coming in Taiwan.

In Africa, Benin two-thirds flooded after heavy rains, 43 dead

Flooding in Haiti leaves 10 dead

Flooding on Greek islands causes chaos

And in Thailand, northern run-off to hit Bangkok; flood worrisome in several provinces


Concern not just in Scotland but throughout the UK as mountain rescue helicopter centres to close under Whitehall plans . RAF Kinloss, as well as providing one of Britain's essential SAR teams, also co-ordinates all SAR operations in the UK and surrounding waters. Leuchars which provides Scotland's other SAR team looks safe, but the implications to climbers and sailors is obvious. Except to the Goverment. See also: end of RAF involvement at Kinloss as Nimrods cancelled

It's safe to drink milk! Don't blame dairy cows for (greenhouse) gas emissions

D…

19th October - Today's News: Swans Herald Winter's Arrival in Britain

The Net-Wx winter forecast is now out and the summary has been added to my forecast page here. I've also added my latest thoughts regarding the MetO LRF.

And with snow already falling across the Scottish hills and more likely tomorrow, Siberian swans signal start of Arctic winter with Wales on an icy Arctic weather alert.

(worth noting in that latter article that Jonathan Powell from PWS is quoted as saying "...we won’t, I think, have the consecutive run of very cold weather. It will be slightly more broken up this year." - compare with my comments made last Friday : "...but I think cold spells will be more broken than we experienced last year" - has he been reading my blog?! )

And this week, Christmas Day snow betting opens at Ladbrokes

Typhoon Megi heads for China after striking Philippines - in the storm's aftermath, Isabela province is in ruins.

35 people die, downpour continues in central Vietnam

There's been a rather worrying rise in Scots wind farm s…

18th October Quick Summary - Typhoon Megi Strike Philippines

Super Typhoon Megi hits northern Philippines

Meanwhile, in China, Hainan braces for Typhoon Megi and in central Vietnam 20 bus passengers swept away by floods and there's been severe flooding in Thailand after incessant rain.

Severn barrage tidal energy scheme scrapped - it would provided lost of electricity, but at what cost to the environment?

Climate change may alter natural climate cycles of Pacific - instead of El Nino will we get El Nino Modoki (similar, but different)?

Gale force blast leaves trail of havoc in NZ

Cold winds and snow forecast for UK - on Sunday morning my thermometer dipped to -0.2c, the second earliest date on which I've recorded an air frost and some 7 weeks earlier than last year.

16th October - Today's News: More Wintry Storms in Australia

In Australia, Qld's wild weather eases but there's a flood warning issues for the upper Murray as the river reaches its highest level in 35 years while there have been hundreds evacuated after flooding in NSW. And as the cold snap brings snow to Victoria, there's even been snow reported in Canberra.

Nine dead in southern Russia flash flood

Chilly outlook forecast for the BBC's weathermen

IPCC aims for clarity and relevance in new report - and interesting that after years of my arguing that 'precipitation pattern change' is a more serious, immediate issue than global warming, I see the AR5 will concentrate on things like the Asian Monsoon. Though whether they'll take into proper consideration the effects land use change, deforesation and brown clouds have on the monsoon remains to be seen.

New modelling study shows carbon dioxide controls Earth's temperature - basically, the study suggest that without the addition of the likes of CO2, water vapour would b…

Winter 2010/11 Forecasts

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I don't as a rule issue long range forecasts. At best they can only indicate general trends over a multi-week period and at worst they are misconstrued and taken out of context by the media and general public.

However, with prevailing synoptic trends continuing in a similar vein to last year it does look like for the British Isles it'll be another cold and snowy winter, though maybe less extreme than last winter. I don't see any return to frequent mild, wet and windy southwesterly weather, but I think cold spells will be more broken than we experienced last year. However, such cold spells look like setting in earlier - it was not until December that I saw my first air frost of the autumn in 2009. And with an earlier start to winter we may also see an earlier arrival of Spring. Though that's a long way off. Chances of a white Christmas somewhere or other in Britain look quite high at this stage, insofar as the second half of December will probably see some snow…

15th October - Today's News: Record High Temperatures in Zimbabwe

Received my first 13 £10 cheques from Walkers Crisps yesterday. Still a couple more to come and hopefully with 4 weeks of the competition still to run I can at least double that! Especially as after a dry week things are looking much more unsettled, and indeed cold, across the British Isles. Snow possible even to low level in the Highlands next week.

In Zimbabwe, where it's now spring, October temperatures soar to record highs . However, whilst it may also be spring in Australia, there's big rain, wild winds and wintry blast on the way. Thanks to a strong La Nina it's likely Australia will have a cooler, wetter summer this year than usual. Which is worth bearing in mind with the Ashes coming up!

Heavy rain and flooding likely in parts of the Philippines this weekend with possible super typhoon 'Megi' coming

In the Caribbean a weakening Paula drenches Cuba

Large gaps found in public understanding of climate change

And it's now been confirmed that on October 6th…

13th October - Today's News: Chilean Miners Rescued

Congratulations Chile! The first trapped miners have made it to the surface and hopefully the rest will follow through the course of today. A very successful conclusion to a remarkable rescue operation.

Huge lightning bolt strikes Statue of Liberty. Not in itself remarkable, but the photo of it is well worth sharing. It's several years now since I last saw a ground strike ...... But there was more lightning again in New York on Monday as hail brings Brooklyn to a near standstill in a freaky, fast but furious storm

Hurricane Paula heads for Mexican tourist coast

In Queensland, receding floodwater leaves layers of sludge - and I agree, it does look like being a cool, wet, summer for much of Australia this year thanks to a strong La Nina (just wait till the global coolers latch on that!). Meanwhile, in NZ, there have been evacuation as heavy rain lashes Gisbourne.

Fossils of earliest land plants discovered in Argentina

There's been a regional sea temperature rise and coral ble…

11th October - Today's News: Warmest September in Satellite Records

Latest figures from UAH show lower tropospheric temperatures to have produced the warmest September in the satellite records - this despite a strong La Nina. As Roger Pielke Sr says:
If this persists while we are in a La NiƱa pattern (when we expect cooling) it will provide strong support for those who expect a long term warming to occur as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. On the other hand, if the temperatures cool to average or below average over large portions of the globe, this would indicate that the climate has a self regulation which mutes temperature excursions.Whilst Roy Spencer also comments that
Despite cooling in the tropics, the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly has stubbornly refused to follow suit: +0.60 deg. C for September, 2010.Since the daily global average sea surface temperature anomalies on our NASA Discover web page have now cooled to well below the 2002-2010 average, there remains a rather large dis…

9th October - Today's News: Flash Floods on Sunshine Coast

In Australia there's been flash flooding on the Sunshine Coast

Russia confirms that death rate rose by a quarter in heatwave

Malaysia log-jam threatens disaster in Sarawak

How to waste public money and make yourself look stupid: As another freezing winter looms, council hands out 2,000 spades and tells residents: 'Dig yourselves out when it snows'. Snowed in? Just ring up the council for a spade ........ Actually, the story has no doubt been taken out of context and it's simply an idea so that neighbours can help one another should bad weather take hold.

Of course, the sole basis for 'another freezing winter' is that PWS (no more weather experts than you or I) said so. And the sole reason PWS said so is because extreme forecasts of severe cold winters garner more publicity from the gutter press. And if you forecast extremes every year, sooner or later you'll be right. Which is why PWS also predict record breaking high temperatures every summer.

(Rat…

8th October - Today's News: Logging Responsible for Indonesian Flood Deaths

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Indonesia flood till rises to 110 - and there are strong suggestions now that this flash flood caused by illegal logging. Sadly, no surprise there then!

In Vietnam flood death toll reaches 48. Again, some of this may be attributable to deforestation, causing landslides and reducing uptake of moisture from the ground.

And there have been 130,000 evacuated due to flooding in S China island province of Hainan

On Wednesday, Arizona struck by four tornadoes in a single day

In South Africa, lightning kills man during the storm

NZ farmers have been warned of another snowy blast on the way again - their winter seems to be lingering on into spring just as ours did.

Human activities overload ecosystems with nitrogen - although it's also argued that there is insufficient nitrogen for plants to make beneficial use of increased atmospheric CO2. So a bit of a contradiction here maybe? Though of course, it's nitrogen in soil not nitrogen in rivers and seas that is needed.

This has got the clim…

6th October - Today's News: Wind Farms Can Affect Local Climate

Up to £130 now on the Walker's 'rain challenge' - but looks like it could be 10 days before I add much more to that with very little rain expected over the coming week.

Wind farms extend growing season in certain regions - by causing warming at night and cooling by day. All the more reason then to build them on farmland close to towns instead of hundreds of miles away on remote upland moors!

Floods and landslides kill at least 86 in Indonesia

More floods inundate central Vietnam after heavy rain

A lucky escape as lightning strikes family's home near Newry, Co Down

In Los Angeles, 32,000 lose power due to rain, winds while in Pune, India, after pounding rain, citzens wade through water.

Hail, strong winds as storms hit Victoria

Well this makes sense: Oxfordshire town sees human waste used to heat homes - it's definitely renewable!

A new study shows an alarming increase in flow of water into oceans due to global warming, accelerated cycle of evapouration, precipitation

Ant…

4th October - Today's News: Will Britain Have Another 'Big Freeze' This Winter?

It was fairly wet in places over the weekend though not quite as bad - especially in Worcestershire - as forecast models had suggested. Made another £40 to bring my total on the Walker's rain Challenge to £110. But it now gets a bit more tricky as I only have one 'go' per day .....

As for the predicted floods, well there were some as Fire Service rescues 13 in North Yorkshire floods, hundreds of homes suffer flooding in London and in Wales rainfall delay takes Ryder cup into historic fourth day

Some wet weather elsewhere this weekend too:

Eight dead, missing in strong flood in Central Vietnam

And in Australia, kids rescued as rain lashes NSW north coast

It's predicted that ocean conditions likely to reduce Colordao River flows during this winter's drought

And finally, is Britain 'in for another big freeze winter'? - so says PWS, who also forecast record breaking high temperatures for August 2009 and again this summer.... Not surprisingly, the Met Office are…

2nd October - Today's News: Summer 2010 4th Warmest on Record (GISS)

17mm of rain in Evesham - nearly as much as for the whole of September. A respite today then more rain expected overnight and tomorrow. Then more later next week ..... But hopefully I'll make a few pounds out of this through a promotion Walkers Crisps are running - pick the right time and place where it'll rain and win a tenner every time. Made £70 yesterday.

So, just how warm was this summer? According to GISS it was overall the 4th warmest in their 131 year record. 2009 came in as second warmest. However, last year El Nino conditions meant a warm Pacific whereas this summer saw the opposite, La Nina, bringing colder temperatures and this made a big difference to the overall global picture.

A barmy 'elf and safety snow clearance policy in Lancashire overturned but across the country there are already concerns that some Councils 'short of road grit' - a problem if winter is anything like last year,

Whilst La Nina has little if any influence on Britain's cl…

1st October - Today's News: TS Nicole Brings Floods to Jamaica & US East Coast

Death toll rises from Tropical Storm Nicole in Jamaica whilst on the US East Coast there are 5 dead as drenching rains take aim at New England

A wet and windy day in Britain today to start October - and all signs are that similar conditions will persist for at least the next week. First casualty in Wales as Ryder Cup play suspended at Celtic Manor in heavy rain - expect to see flooding reports coming in over the weekend.

In Adriatic, lightning may have struck missing balloonist's craft

It's not just the Scottish Highlands under threat; there are also fears over pylon plan for Lincolnshire coast. Don't forget it's all very environmentally friendly ......... not!

Fresh Mexico landslide kills 16 people in Chiapas

Is this the final nail in the Clovis Comet's coffin? No evidence for Clovis comet catastrophe, archaeologists say. Nah, I'm sure it'll be back ...

Climate accord loopholes could spell 4.2 degree rise in temperature and end of coral reefs by 2100 - and…