7th June - Today's News: First Thunderstorm in Nearly a Year for Evesham

Well as predicted it was 4 hot days and a thunderstorm as BBQ weather gives way to storms - and yes, we did just about scrape a thunderstorm in Evesham yesterday afternoon. Only one flash of lightning observed, 3 big cracks of thunder, a spell of heavy rain and a nice whales mouth as the gust front moved through ahead of the storm. There looks to be a chance for more this week. previously, the last thunderstorm in Evesham was 15th June 2009 and the last time thunder was heard here was 25th August 2009. That's along, long time without any proper convective activity, even for the Vale.

We missed the activity on Saturday night though when heavy overnight rain causes floods and landslides in Sneition, Notts.

Meanwhile in Europe, more flooding forces evacuation in Slovakia whilst a second flood wave inundates hourse in Poland and down the Danube, floods threaten Serbian capital.

Interestingly the great Piers Corbyn failed to predict any severe weather for Europe (there were some big thunderstorms across France too) over the weekend - though he has pencilled in 'deluges' and heatwaves for later this month:

"Our Extreme Events forecast and EuroMaps forecast spell out our estimated details in timing and region of both floods and (short) heatwaves this June. The deluge and flood events with high tornado risks on one side of Europe and hot weather on the other occur in roughly the same RED WARNING periods (with typical 85% confidence of basic success) around the JUNE dates:-

8-11th - Both heat in East & deluges in West/NW

14-17th - Deluges

23-25th - Both heat in East & deluges in West/NW

26-30th - Both heat in East & deluges in West/NW - Major Significant Floods.

Publicity of this information is free and welcome.

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=201&c=5

As requested, I'm happy to publicise this and at the same time ask whether this forecast is any more valid than a prediction that some football teams will win during the football season? I still remember his infmaous poor July 2007 forecast for England in which heavy rain and flooding was predicted throughout the month - except for the weekend on which it actually happened! And of course, with a description of the synoptic conditions leading to particular weather conditions this is all the meteorological equivalent of a clairvoyent - who knows within his audience there'll always be someone who knew someone associated with the letter J who passed away within the last few years ...... And will be comforted to know that Bill Brown, whose wife's brother was called John, is no longer in pain.

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