9th September - Today's News: David Rose Displays Ignorance of Basic English and Maths ....
The usual nonsense by David Rose in the Mail, falsely claiming that now it's global cooling! Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year.... ! The reality is that after an exceptional melt last year, in part due to unusual weather patterns, the melt this year has, as expected, not been quite so much - though still more than in most years on record and well below the levels that computer models once predicted. Also worth emphasising that Rose has a very poor graft of basic English or Maths and does not appear to know the difference between 'could' and 'will' or that if you subtract a number from a higher number you end up with less, not more .....! A more accurate (although they too fail to make it clear in their opening paragraph that, obviously - given it's been melting - there has been no growth in ice cover, just slightly less ice loss) from Abraham and Nuccitelli in their Guardian blog on how Arctic sea ice delusions strike the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph. This charts (from my friends at skepticalscience) nicely sums up Rose's (and others) delusion:
In other news:
After the hail, heavy rain causes flooding in Falmouth
Lightning hits helmut of motorcyclist in USTripoli finishes clearing up after the storm that killed 2 people
Lightning hits helmut of motorcyclist in USTripoli finishes clearing up after the storm that killed 2 people
It's been the warmest August in record at the South Pole
And proof there are still places on Earth where no man has trod before as British team first to scale Himalayan mountain
Not sure how unusual the weather patterns were last year, or how much the weather was conducive to melt at times - certainly nothing like 2007 and 2010. I think there was one month that should have been low met, but high rate carried on.
ReplyDeleteThis year though has been a high cyclonic year which do tend to result in lower melt. Early season cloud cover and cold had a big influence.
It's noticeable how we didn't get the Greenland high anomaly this year, which has been a feature of every summer since 2007. Whether this marks a -ve feedback (my hope), or is a one-off weather event (my guess) we'll not really know for a couple of years.
I think it shows that we should get a saw-tooth pattern for the years following the first ice free (<1mill km^2) summer or part thereof. There's still not enough heat in the system to prevent the usual 1-2m of thickness from the winter refreeze. So there's going to be something there for low melt weather to help preserve.
skanky
Thks Adam - My comment about unusual synoptics last year was reference to the 'Arctic Cyclone' which I think helped break up the ice a bit more than would otherwise have happened. No such storm this year. And yes, I think a saw tooth pattern is what everyone except the so-called sceptics expects to see.
ReplyDeleteJust found this which explains the effects of weather patterns this year and last:
http://www.nature.com/news/summer-storms-bolster-arctic-ice-1.13605
Ah yes, the GAC2012. I's forgotten bout that, though I had seen Zhang et al's paper (the abstract anyway) so was of the opinion that the record would have been reached without it. I guess that's not totally cut and dried, but think it's very likely.
ReplyDeleteGood article, BTW, I hadn't seen it before. There's also an article on the NSIDC site, somewhere, about it too.
Cheers,
skanky