Weather & Earth Science News

Four degrees of warming 'likely' - but by the end of the century, not 2060 (which is simply a speculative date mentioned in passing as a off the cuff plausibility, not a likelihood under this study. Yet another case of don't believe the media! The actual MetO Press Release (with no reference to 2060) is here . Ketsana has continued to cause devastation in SE Asia: Devastation in Manila flood zone Philippines struggles as flood deaths rise In Viet Nam: Ketsana barrels into central region Death toll from tropical storm "Ketsana" rises to to 26 in Vietnam Typhoon Ketsana blasts Cambodia Meanwhile an earthquake off Samoa has triggered a deadly tsunami: Tsunamis devastate Pacific islands UK child presumed dead in tsunami Pacific tsunami death toll at 76 Samoa tsunami: 100 feared dead on Pacific Islands More updates on this tomorrow. Other news: Sydney's hottest September in 150 years Indian drought worst since 1972 Floundering El Ninos make for fickle forecasts...

Hundreds feared dead as tropical storm Ketsana lashes Manila with month's rain in a day Philippines battles flood chaos Aussie dust storms may help save planet - hmmm, is this another sign of Gaia in operation? Global Warming and mass deforestation increase drought and the frequency of big dust storms. These not only spread diseases to reduce human populations (and thus - in theory anyway - our detrimental impact on the environment) but also act to reduce the effects of AGW ... Thus helping maintain the equilibrium. This works equally well with just natural warming too. Met Office warns of catastrophic global warming in our lifetimes . Or maybe not. I've not seen the report, but my guess is that it presents a number of possible scenarios and that 4c by 2060 is a worse case possiblity and not one that is thought very likely. Bit like the 11c by 2100 that was much trupeted a few years back. China's wind farms come with a catch: coal plants Global increase in atmosp...

Peruvian glacial retreats linked to European events of Little Ice Age Why South Australia spring weather has gone crazy VIDEO: Man survives desert dust storm (Shared via AddThis ) And, meanwhile, it's back: more dust blankets east coast - and to see just how extensive the first storm was, Sydney's apocalyptic dust storm seen from space . In Canada: hot September 'bizarre' - with temperatures in Saskatchewan higher than any of the summer months. Typhoon batters northern Philippines

Five dead in Turkey's latest round of floods First Deep Impact and other spacecraft find clear evidence of water on the Moon , and now we have Martian ice exposed by meteorite impacts . The stuff's everywhere! But I'm particularly interested in this comment by Shane Byrne: This ice is a relic of a more humid climate from perhaps just a few thousand years ago Surely that has major ramifications in the search for life on Mars? I'm always intrigued at just how widespread commercial cloud seeding is in the USA. For example, in Nevada cloud seeding to continue this year for Truckee River basin . It's a growing business in Australia too and in Tasmania there are claims that Hydro's cloud seeding ineffective - though it sounds in this case to be more a case of commercial rivalry. Meanwhile, India is also giving it a go. Forbes, India have a useful interview with Arvind Sharma, CEO of Indian cloud seeding firm Agni Aviation - How do you know which clouds to t...

Wild Colorado weather keeps foothills in white, forecasters in dark Death toll at 10 as Southeast floods start to ebb Global Warming may dent El Nino's protective shield from Atlantic hurricanes, increase droughts Hurricane frequency is up, but not their strength, say researchers Lasers from space show thinning of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets India's Lunar mission finds evidence of water on the Moon

Arctic ice to last decades longer than thought? Flood, landslide destroy villages, plantations near new Myanmar capital - interestingly attributed to " waterfall from tributary streams on mountains, triggered by climate change " but I would think much more likely a consequence of deforestation. Further evidence that CO2 emissions are being used as a convenient scapegoat to divert attention away from real and pressing issues and the consequences of local activity? May be - and is so, rather worrying. How do you stop developing nations from destroying their environment and endangering their own lives when they believe any consequences of their actions are all the fault of western carbon emissions? More on the floods in the US where Southeast flood death toll rises to eight; roadways blocked; neighbourhoods evacuated . Small earthquakes shake Melbourne's south-east whilst across Australia, violent weather whips, shakes and wraps the nation - the pictures coming out of...

In Costa Rica, a rare tornado hits south side of San Jose There are damaging storms moving across Australia as dust blankets ACT and NSW whilst elswhere, after hot August nights, Alice swelters in September and, in contrast, Perth's wet spell a weather record for September . And in Korea, autumnal yellow dust may affect central parts In the USA: toddler amongst 6 killed as storms drench Southeast whilst Georgia highways, roads remain closed by flooding; more rain on the way in what the LA Times describes as a 'historic' storm . Some areas have reported 20 inches of rain in 36 hours. Bhutan hit by strong earthquake Why Brits always talk about the weather And according to the Telegraph Autumn's arrival hails Indian Summer . No it doesn't. Unless I missed all the sharps frosts? Indian Summers simply don't occur until later in October or November. I go through this every year ....... An Indian summer is " An unseasonably warm, dry and calm weather, u...

Temperature records smash across Saskatchewan I wasn't even aware they had them in Australia, but apparently they do up in northern Queensland where they reckon there's a volcanic eruption 'overdue' . Also in Australia, hail, blackouts as severe storms hit SA Venus Express adds evidence for atmospheric water loss on Earth's twin World's river deltas sinking due to human activity Study shows disparity of effect of climate change on UV radiation

Cloud seeding to increase winter snowfall? Yep, that's what they're doing in Colorado where cloud seeding aims to increase Winter Park snowfall . Not heard of this before, but reading the article it would appear it's not an uncommon thing. Just don't tell the chemtrailers! Can condoms combat climate change? In Cyprus, tornado hits Nicosia Climate change campaigners should not have fixated on carbon dioxide argues the Telegraph's Geoffrey Lean, and I totally agree with him. Though I'd stick tropical deforestation at the top of my list of 'low hanging fruits' that ought have been tackled first and which would also have led to a great improvement in the lives of many third world peoples. And back in the "well they blame it for everything else" category we have Walruses die en masse as Arctic ice melts - the false implication being that they dies due to global warming, even though Arctic ice has been much less extensive in the recent geolog...

From the New York Times there are updates on warm seas and Arctic ice - the actual NOAA news release is: Warmest global sea surface temperatures for August and Summer and reads: The world’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest for any August on record, and the warmest on record averaged for any June-August (Northern Hemisphere summer/Southern Hemisphere winter) season ~ ~ ~ Global Highlights – Summer The June-August worldwide ocean surface temperature was also the warmest on record at 62.5 degrees F, 1.04 degrees F above the 20th century average of 61.5 degrees F. The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the June-August season was 61.2 degrees F, which is the third warmest on record and 1.06 degrees F above the 20th century average of 60.1 degrees F. Global Highlights – August The worldwide ocean surface temperature of 62.4 degrees F was the warmest on record for any August, and 1.03 degrees F above the 20th century average of 61.4 degrees F....

Seven die as typhoon Koppu hits China Tonnes of driftwood from Taiwan typhoon clogs Japan Largest offshore windfarm to go online Arctic shipping shortcut bad for climate Cameroon lightning strike kills 5 schoolchildren Now this is something you don't get in Evesham - record lightning storm on Saturn has lasted 8 months - 8 minutes is more like it in these parts (and while on the subject, 2009 is shaping up to be the least thundery year on record!) Melting of the Greenland ice cap mapped Could salt crusts be key ingredient in cooking up prebiotic molecules? Egg-shaped legacy of Britain's mobile ice-sheet

In search of dark asteroids (and other sneeky things) Jupiter captured comet for 12 years in mid-20th century And still on a space theme (not news, but interesting nonetheless): Tinkle, tinkle, little star - having finally managed to photograph the ISS last Saturday, and having seen the space shuttle fly over earlier this year, I guess there's now a new challenge - though I guess urine clouds are not likely to be readily visible to the naked eye. I'm not quite sure I believe this: Prehistoric man 'used crude sat nav' - but it does fit a little in with a personal, long held, theory that many standing stones, cairns etc were erected as 'sign-posts'. Neolithic man is walking along the ridgeway, it's turning cold and wet and misty, he sees a standing stone - and knows that the next village and a warming jug of heather ale is awaiting him just down in the combe below. Or else, reaching a prominent cairn or stone, he knows he's entered the territory of the ...

Tornado injures 8 tourists in southern Turkey Guatemala faces worst drought in three decades - though I'm curious how 3% below average rainfall in June is that significant? Maybe something was lost in translation. Meanwhile, further north, eyes turn to Mexico as drought drags on . Though it's nothing new given this news story from 1999 . I do wonder whether the real issue is water mismanagement and, of course, ever growing demand for more water (both for humans, livestock and for crops) - hence every drought (which seem pretty common in this region) becomes the 'worst on record'? In New Zealand, temperatures soar down South - with Christchurch experiencing a "freakish" jump in temperature thanks to the nor'wester. Temperatures jumped from 9C to 21C in just 20 minutes, said WeatherWatch.co.nz's Richard Green. El Nino, global warming link questioned - and a possible link between the 1918 El Nino and the Spanish 'flu pandemic? Or maybe j...

Record temperatures in Melbourne US wraps up record summer lows Thousands flee Philippines floods Thousands displaced after heavy rains strike Brazil And in Turkey, floods strike again over the weekend Fred lost at sea - our second Atlantic hurricane of the season has fizzled out into nothing without ever coming close to threatening land. Hong Kong issues alert as severe tropical storm nears New Carbon Dioxide data helps unlock secrets of Antarctic formation And, dare I post this? It's our friend Jonathon Powell again ...... Big freeze on its way to Wales He said: “After our prediction of a non-barbecue summer, which one particular forecaster did predict, we are now making our winter forecast weeks before all the other major players dare show their hands. Well I seem to recall it was Powell who predicted it would get to 100f+ in August ..... “A continuation of a ‘big freeze’ scenario cannot be ruled out and through to mid February, winter’s grip will be at its tightest, with a su...

It will come as no surprise to many but the NOAA's seasonal assessment is now out and they've said Summer temperature below average for US . The average June-August 2009 summer temperature for the contiguous United States was below average – the 34th coolest on record, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. August was also below the long-term average. The analysis is based on records dating back to 1895. Here in the UK it was a warmer and wetter than average summer - so no surprises here either. UK mean temperature over the three months of June, July and August was 0.6 °C above the long-term average at 14.7 °C. UK rainfall reached 318.5 mm, 40% more than average. Summer 2009 was warmer than both 2007 and 2008. Unlike 2008, each summer month saw temperatures in excess of 30 °C. In the south-east of England rainfall was very close to normal and temperature was 0.6 °C above normal. In western Scotland 60% more rain than n...

Kenya's elephants dying amid drought North Colombia heatwave forces government to issue health warning NOAA sees El Nino strengthening through 2009 And in the capital of India: season's longest rain spell leaves city reeling Wind could cut China's emissions by 30% They obviously don't get many contrails over Hawaii (unlike here where after 2 nice clear days the skies are filling again with manmade cirrus): Mysterious clouds; what were they? Greenland's melt mystery unfolds at glacial pace - is a story worthy of a few quotes: Alarm bells rang as the pattern was repeated by glaciers across Greenland: Was the island's vast ice sheet, a frozen water reservoir that could raise the sea level 20 feet if disgorged, in danger of collapse? Half a decade later, there's a little bit of good news — and a lot of uncertainty. "It does seem that the very rapid speeds were only sustained for a short period of time although none of these glaciers have returned to the ...

More news from Istanbul: Turks swept away in flash floods whilst, perhaps inevitably but also in my opinion disingenuously, WWF-Turkey claim flooding a sign of global warming . It's not. It's a sign of weather . An increased incidence of such events may be a sign of a change in local or regional climate which in turn may be caused by global warming. But that is all. Nighttime artificial cloud study using NASA sounding rocket Pollution from California wildfires spreads across United States Satellites and submarines give the skinny on sea ice thickness Contraception cheapest way to combat climate change - anything to curb human population growth sounds good to me! Canadians unprepared for volatile weather NOAA's powerful new supercomputers boost US weather forecasts - but are they more energy efficient that the MetO's one?

Yesterday might have seen Gravesend record the 2nd highest temperature anywhere in the UK for 10 years (which is quite notable in light of recent very warm Septembers) but it also saw the consequences of the recent wet spell in the NW where a landslide closes the A83 as storms lash Scotland . (Gravesend recorded 28.7c Tyndrum 62.6mm rain) Also: Dull weather makes Scotland a black spot for vitamin D deficiency Seven killed in Turkey floods S American storm kills at least 17 Hurricane Fred becomes a category 2 storm - but looks unlikely to hit land.

The recent Kaufman etal reconstruction of Arctic temperatures for the past 2,000 years has inevitably attracted a fair bit of controversy, not least because of it's distinctly 'hockey-stick' like appearance - caused by a sudden rapid warming trend over the past 100 years. The reconstruction itself used data up to 2,000 so any recent trends are not included, but it's interesting, in light of claims that such recent warming has not been as extreme as the reconstruction suggests, to look at a few recent reports and news stories (as much for ease of future reference as anything - no specific point is being made here!) 2005 Greenland witnesses record winter high temperature 2007 Record 22c temperatures in Arctic heatwave Parts of the Arctic have experienced an unprecedented heatwave this summer, with one research station in the Canadian High Arctic recording temperatures above 20C, about 15C higher than the long-term average ...... Scientists from Queen's University i...

My mildest September night on record last night - falling to just 17.5c (which is not far off the average max this time of year!). And only 2 warmer nights the whole of this summer. A breezy but warm and muggy day today - but the good news is that from tomorrow we see high pressure build over the country and it looks like sticking around for a week or more, giving a spell of fine, dry settled weather, a bit misty at times and maybe more cloudy towards the east at time. No heatwave but a nice respite for those who had so much rain of late. And, no it's not an 'Indian Summer' because we ain't had a 'killing frost' yet. It's rare to get a chance of an 'Indian Summer' in England before mid October and more often it's November .... Mexico water shortage becomes crises amidst drought - so rather ironic that rain floods Mexico City homes, subway . Though downpours of this nature generally do little to alleviate droughts due to the rapid runoff...

In Scotland, clean-up under way after floods Air quality worsens from Typhoon Morakot's dust Weather presenters grapple with uncertain climate - some interesting quotes there, from a news agency that is usually fairly reliable in such matters. Caribbean rides the hurricane storm - contains an uncharacteristic error from Philip Eden when he states that " Jimena, which battered Mexico's Baja California peninsula this week with torrential rain and powerful winds, only reached "tropical storm" status " - it actually reached Cat 4 status (and may have briefly been Cat 5) as it approached Mexico and was still at least Cat 1 on landfall. I suspect the hand of a sub editor here though. I know (from Philip himself) that articles such as this are often amended after submission and that often this is how errors creep in. Finally, and mainly for reference, the datasets used by Kaufmann etal in their 'ice hockey stick' reonstruction are available for...

New climate forecasting system to be created In France it was a hot summer for all - except Brittanny Flood hits 350,000 in West Africa whilst closer to home it was the time for Aberdeen to be hit with a month's rainfall in a day as floods force evacuation of Scottish homes . Tropical storm hits southern Philippines Jimena weakens to a tropical depression over Mexico

Introducing the Ice Hockey Stick This comes from a new study which finds the Arctic 'warmest in 2,000 years' The similarity to Mann's infamous hockey stick temp reconstruction is quite striking. And this new reconstruction covers a longer period - right back to the Roman Warm Period. It's interesting that the 400s were warmer than the 900s - the latter being when the Vikings colonised Greenland. And the general cooling trend (as expecting in accordance with current Milankovitch Cycles , and actually starting around 5,000 years ago ) also shows up very well. Until the 20th century when something dramatic happens. What could possibly have caused this reversal? The Sun? Cosmic Rays? Ocean Currents? I wonder ..... Meanwhile, Greenpeace are claiming that Greenland glaciers are melting faster than ever But then, they would. Himalayans need climate change science to get its fingers dirty The dramatic rise in Western forest fires: is climate change to blame? Mill...

It's been a few weeks since we last had one of these - yet another study on sea level rises with this time the WWF claiming sea levels could rise more than a meter by 2100 . Previous studies include suggestions of between 28cm and 34cm (2006) and up to one and a half meters (2008). I don't think anyone has suggested sea levsl will fall by 2100. Yet. Humans causing erosion comparable to the world's largest rivers and glaciers Hurricane Jimena swirls past southern Baja resorts Tropical Storm Erika weakens slightly Weather helping fight against massive LA blaze Five dead, thousands homeless in Burkina floods Deadly earthquake hits Indonesia According to the 2010 Farmer's Almanac a cold winter could be on the way . Of course, that's just for America. However the fact the MetO LRF is for a milder winter does bode rather well for those of us wanting lots of snow and hard frosts! Meanwhile, as already expected given recent conditions, Australia's warm winter...

Quite a big round up of stories from the last few days - unfortunately I'm still rather busy elsewhere so no time to add much in the way of comment. Water shortage threatens two million people in southern Iraq - described as " the most critical since the earliest days of Iraq 's civilisation ". Record high temperatures in Los Angeles area heatwave Pope blames atheists for global warming - which may well go down as the most ironic suggestion of the year! As the article well explains. Danny weakens as Jimena becomes hurricane Melting glaciers threaten Nepal 'tsunami' And in the Alps: hot summer melts glaciers After temps soared to over 100f across Britain in August, as predicted by the media - but unfortunately not in this reality - they're at it again: Brits in for Autumn heatwave says the Daily Star. Oh now we're not says everyone else ..... ..... US Wildfire round-up: multiple wildfires scorch West in dry, hot weather NOAA report explains sea l...