Assessment of Weatheraction Forecast

Now, let's just see how accurate Piers Corbyn's forecast for this week really was:
N Sea Storm Surge Stormy with heavy rain - snow & blizzards in Scot & N/E later. N Sea storm & coastal flood warnings East Anglia & Holland 18-19/20th enhanced by new moon 16/17th (Red oval = danger sea level rise) S Ireland & S/W less wet & windy.

Atlantic ridge, powerful deep 'dartboard low' moving E centered N of Scot going into Scand
N Sea Storm Surge - No
Stormy with heavy rain - Yes
Snow & Blizzards in Scot & N/E - No
N Sea storm and coastal warnings in East Anglia & Holland - No
S Ireland & S/W less wet and windy - No
Atlantic Ridge - No
Deep Low moving into Scandinavia - No

He failed on all bar one point. And it's been stormy with heavy rain for the past week and likely to continue so well into next week - something else Pier's failed to forecast. His forecast also showed that for the SW there would "showers turning wintry later with snow" - another complete fail. He did suggest that there was a 15% chance the low would not be powerful enough, or too far north, to cause a storm surge, but that was all. The actual synoptics and weather are completely and utterly different. Oh well ...... I doubt that'll stop Piers claiming success and deriding the Met Office as usual. I'm just glad I took notice of his forecast, canceled my planned camping trip on the Suffolk Coast and went to the Lake District instead .......

Update 25th Nov:- Piers has now issued his own assessment of his forecast for this period and, as expected, his conclusions are somewhat different to mine. I'm particularly concerned that he has the audacity to claim that his forecast for S Ireland to be 'less wet' is verified because they had less total rain than Cumbria!!!! Just face it Piers - you got it wrong, very wrong. The fact that this particular spell of wind and rain was just one of many over a 2 week period (which Piers also appears not to have forecast) is also conveniently ignored. There is no shame in admitting fallibility.

Piers does at least accept that his forecasts are not intended as weather forecasts at all!
WeatherAction long range forecasts are NEVER intended as detailed alternatives to the (normally) 5 to 10 consecutive forecasts standard meteorology will make for any particular period up to 12 hours ahead, and it is absurd and improper for anyone to treat them as such.
- which IMO he'd do well to concentrate on in future, because there may be some validity in his methods for predicting general trends - ie wet & unsettled, or cold and dry weather - for a given period. Presumably too, this means no more of his specific predictions of specific apocalyptic weather for Britain on specific dates! Yeah, I wish .....


Edit 4/1/12 - Piers' full Nov 09 forecast can be read here

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

19th July - Today's News: Lightning Storms and Flash Floods Hit Southern England

16th January - Today's News: Thousand Stranded in Philippines Flash Floods

26th November - Today's News: "Unprecedented" Snowfall in Almaty